This is just my guess, but I believe the collapsing world stock markets are directly related to dropping oil prices. Saudi Arabia has been pumping oil like crazy. There is a glut on the world market. They are doing this for two reasons. First, they want to break the Russian bank. It costs Russia much more to pump and process a barrel of crude than it does Saudi Arabia and Russia is much more dependent on that oil money. Further to the point, the Saudis can afford to sell at a loss. These things are intended to induce economic collapse in Russia and get them out of Syria. Syria is a Saudi enemy religiously and geopolitically. The Syrians are Shiites and the Saudis are Sunnis. The Saudis also want to run a petrol pipeline through Syria to Turkey and on to Europe. The cost of this petrol will be cheaper in Europe than the current cost of buying from the Russians. The whole thing is really a plot by the Saudi allies, Europe and the US, to bring down the Russians.
The second reason the Saudis are doing this is to shut down American oil production for a time. Like the Russians, it costs us much more to produce a barrel of crude than it does the Saudis. Places like the Bakken and Alaska will probably cease production soon. I believe this will be temporary. Once the Russian collapse takes place BRICS will collapse and the US will be firmly in control again.
Yes, I know...a conspiracy. It's a good one.
So how do oil prices effect stock prices. The US dollar is heavily dependent on the value of the petrodollar. The value of the petrodollar is plummeting right now and it is effecting the value of our currency. People are selling stocks that were overvalued to begin with for liquidity.
Once the current oil glut subsides and prices come back up again, so will the world stock markets. The pretenders to the US empire are being pummeled right now. A financial war is being waged. Let's hope it does not turn into a real and hot war.
My blog. My opinion. If you're an economist, tell me what's wrong with my theory.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
The Powerball
I am not a gambler. I have been to a casino once in my life. I did walk out with more than I left behind (USD 120.00 more), but I have not been back. I always considered multi state lottery tickets to be a waste of cash; a voluntary tax. The odds of winning are astronomical unless you're some toothless hillbilly in Dry Ridge, Kentucky with a major appliance on your front porch and at least one car up on blocks in the front yard of your double wide trailer with a still in the back.
However....for the last two Powerball drawings, a member of management (not me) in my office has been running a ticket pool among the employees in an attempt to increase the odds of a win. I was asked to join. I thought long and hard about it and then I chucked in three bucks the first time and six yesterday.
I will not be the last man standing. If I had not paid my lottery tax, they would win and leave me holding the broom and everything else in the building. If that happened, I would die before I had a chance to retire. I refuse to let that happen, so I made a bad investment.
We will not win though. The odds are still against us. It is an impossibility. Some people believe in luck. I do not. Something either happens or it doesn't and it has nothing to do with some mystical ability to win or succeed or or or. I do not understand the forces that drive contests such as these, but I do believe that someone somewhere already knows what state and city and store the winning ticket(s) will be sold. This would mean that they had already derived the correct numbers through some calculus of gambling, the science of which few understand well. I do not think the algorithm favors Norwalk, Iowa where our tickets were purchased. It's a racket plain and simple. It's something only state governments can get away with. There is a lot of misery that comes out of state sponsored gambling, but at least in my office, no child will be left behind. I see it as insurance that will never get used.
I can rationalize anything. I should have been a lawyer.
However....for the last two Powerball drawings, a member of management (not me) in my office has been running a ticket pool among the employees in an attempt to increase the odds of a win. I was asked to join. I thought long and hard about it and then I chucked in three bucks the first time and six yesterday.
I will not be the last man standing. If I had not paid my lottery tax, they would win and leave me holding the broom and everything else in the building. If that happened, I would die before I had a chance to retire. I refuse to let that happen, so I made a bad investment.
We will not win though. The odds are still against us. It is an impossibility. Some people believe in luck. I do not. Something either happens or it doesn't and it has nothing to do with some mystical ability to win or succeed or or or. I do not understand the forces that drive contests such as these, but I do believe that someone somewhere already knows what state and city and store the winning ticket(s) will be sold. This would mean that they had already derived the correct numbers through some calculus of gambling, the science of which few understand well. I do not think the algorithm favors Norwalk, Iowa where our tickets were purchased. It's a racket plain and simple. It's something only state governments can get away with. There is a lot of misery that comes out of state sponsored gambling, but at least in my office, no child will be left behind. I see it as insurance that will never get used.
I can rationalize anything. I should have been a lawyer.
Teaching Messy Grace
I am in the midst of deciding whether and what I want to teach in the next Sunday school quarter. For me, decision making is usually a process of me initially deciding not to do something based on reasons that negate the need for whatever it is. From there, I try to get help - input from others to justify my immediate and visceral desire to back away from a proposal. Sometimes that help is immediately agreeable to my resistance. Other times I get a backwash of "what? are you stupid? how can you not do this". This time however, I am getting mixed input. Tomorrow may be decision day.
I had initially thought I wanted to teach from "Messy Grace" by Caleb Kaltenbach. I enjoyed the book for many self centered reasons and it was my thought to inflict it on others and I have already been trying to do this by giving away the books. It's been tough giving them away. I am met with skepticism and time issues. I understand both of those and I sympathize. There is also the lack of teaching materials other than the book. In the fall, those materials will be available, but if I do this now, it will be up to me to create the lessons. I am fairly good at that process, but it is time consuming. I also had the thought that maybe no one at my church cares about this stuff - the subject matter of the book. Then there are the usual questions about offending people. I am an opinionated man. I am very conservative in some respects. I am not graceless, but I am finding I am not nearly as graceful as I should be in regard to the issues approached in the book.
Maybe this last statement is the single best reason for doing it. Maybe I need the book's challenge and the challenge of others to push me towards a more graceful approach to my faith. In conversations with some of my brethren, I have found that some of them are more graceful than I am and perhaps I could learn from them. That has been one of the major benefits I have enjoyed as a teacher over the last 17 years. I have learned much and it has effected me in very positive ways. I am thankful I am allowed to teach for this reason. I will think some more on this and decide whether to move forward here shortly.
I told someone last night that maybe I just need to set down and see if I can prepare two or three lessons from the book and see what they look like and sound like. I could use my present class as crash test dummies. They always seem more than willing to put up with my eccentricities. I do love them. We will see what happens.
See you in class.
I had initially thought I wanted to teach from "Messy Grace" by Caleb Kaltenbach. I enjoyed the book for many self centered reasons and it was my thought to inflict it on others and I have already been trying to do this by giving away the books. It's been tough giving them away. I am met with skepticism and time issues. I understand both of those and I sympathize. There is also the lack of teaching materials other than the book. In the fall, those materials will be available, but if I do this now, it will be up to me to create the lessons. I am fairly good at that process, but it is time consuming. I also had the thought that maybe no one at my church cares about this stuff - the subject matter of the book. Then there are the usual questions about offending people. I am an opinionated man. I am very conservative in some respects. I am not graceless, but I am finding I am not nearly as graceful as I should be in regard to the issues approached in the book.
Maybe this last statement is the single best reason for doing it. Maybe I need the book's challenge and the challenge of others to push me towards a more graceful approach to my faith. In conversations with some of my brethren, I have found that some of them are more graceful than I am and perhaps I could learn from them. That has been one of the major benefits I have enjoyed as a teacher over the last 17 years. I have learned much and it has effected me in very positive ways. I am thankful I am allowed to teach for this reason. I will think some more on this and decide whether to move forward here shortly.
I told someone last night that maybe I just need to set down and see if I can prepare two or three lessons from the book and see what they look like and sound like. I could use my present class as crash test dummies. They always seem more than willing to put up with my eccentricities. I do love them. We will see what happens.
See you in class.
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